tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6479116660852719581.post4277101654621025976..comments2023-02-09T00:57:39.290+01:00Comments on Living in the Lot: An independent US study predicts EU job losses and pay cuts if TTIP is agreedJohn in the Lothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03859716926230240245noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6479116660852719581.post-71198197781094170992014-12-09T17:03:57.155+01:002014-12-09T17:03:57.155+01:00I sent an email to Jeronim Capaldo, as follows, an...I sent an email to Jeronim Capaldo, as follows, and he was kind enough to reply.<br />From: John Preedy <br />Hi Jeronim,<br />Having read your paper with great interest I felt that it needs more exposure so I’ve written a piece here. Sorry about the gross simplifications that are an inevitable result of reducing a detailed paper to a blog piece! I hope that I haven’t distorted your results. <br />My personal blog is not widely read, but I frequently have articles republished by French News Online (I live in France). Before I offer it to them I wondered whether you have any comments on my piece or further thoughts on your paper in the form of a quote. <br /> <br />Two other points also occurred to me:- <br />Unless I’ve missed it, I didn’t see any mention of confidence limits on the model’s outputs.<br />I also wondered whether you have looked into the effects of CETA on Canada and the EU.<br />Kind Regards<br />John Preedy<br /> <br />From: Capaldo, Jeronim <br /> <br />Dear John,<br /><br />Thank you for your message and please excuse my late reply.<br /><br />I don't think your blog post distorts any of the main themes of my paper. Also, answering your questions:<br /><br />1. You don't see any confidence interval because the GPM is not a forecasting model. Forecasting models look at the near term focusing on the likelihood of each outcome. The GPM is a projection model, that is, it looks at long term outcomes. It estimates past and current trends and, assuming they will remain valid, it uses them to project future outcomes. The actual outcomes won't be exactly what we've projected but, if they're close enough, we've done a good job. The GPM's focus is to figure out structural issues.<br /><br />2. I have not looked at CETA in detail. I have followed it but not enough to form a clear opinion on it.<br /><br />The comments I have received on the TTIP paper have been very instructive. They've made me realize that one message is perhaps more important than others in my research: we're used to see trade as an obvious source of income but we forget that sometimes this is not the case. It's dangerous because if we try to expand trade at all costs, even when there is little demand out there, the only result we're likely to achieve is to exacerbate our domestic problems.<br /><br />I hope this helps. Let me know if you have any questions.<br /><br />Best,<br />Jeronim<br />John in the Lothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03859716926230240245noreply@blogger.com